Favorite Books of 2019

Capture

Note: I read these in 2019, not necessarily published in 2019.

Wave by  Sonali Deraniyagala — Memoir of a woman who lost her children, husband, and parents in a tsunami.  A gripping account of immeasurable loss.

Fun Home by Alison Bechdel — Comic-book memoir of a woman growing up in a funeral home, her closeted father and his mysterious death, and her own homosexuality.  It looks like I didn’t write a review for this one.

Persepolis Series by Marjane Strapi  — Comic-book memoir of a woman coming of age in Iran around the time of the Islamic Revolution, and then going abroad to study and live.  It was very difficult for me to understand the political context and history, but I mostly cared about her personal story and that was the focus anyway.  Also looks like I didn’t write a review.  Comics are hard to review.

Tomorrow 3.0 by Michael Munger — Convincing speculation about how smartphone technology will lead to the “Uberization” of many products and services, and the downstream effects of a transition to a sharing economy.

I’m also close to finishing My Struggle Book One by Karl Ove Knausggard, and I like it a lot.  Will plan to write a review.

 

Favorite Audiobooks of 2019

audiobook

Note: I listened to these in 2019, but they weren’t released in 2019.

The Remains of the Day by Kazuo Ishiguro — An English butler looks back on his life, and a rapidly disappearing way of life.  Funny, believable, tragic, touching, melancholic.  It’s narrated by the main character, and the author pulls it off so well.  Fabulous narration.  Highly recommended.  Also very short.

In Cold Blood by Truman Capote — I guess this was the original/paradigmatic true crime story.  Clearly a precursor to Jon Krakauer’s works on true crime, which I love.  Same narrator as Krakauer’s Under the Banner of Heaven, I believe, and he’s fantastic.

Longitude by Dava Sobel — Measuring longitude was a key problem in marine navigation and global exploration.  This book documents how the problem was solved by ingenuity and craftsmanship.  Sadly I listened to this early in the year and can hardly recall any details from memory.  Rather short.

Audiobooks Completed in 2019

  1. Win Bigly by Scott Adams
  2. Longitude by Dava Sobel
  3. The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis
  4. Do you do it, or does it do you? By Alan Watts
  5. Designing Your Life by Bill Burnett and Dave Evans
  6. Out of Your Mind by Alan Watts
  7. One Click by Richard Brandt
  8. The Psychopath Inside by James Fallon
  9. Doing Good Better by William MacAskill
  10. In Cold Blood by Truman Capote
  11. Peak Performnce by Brad Stulberg and Steve Magness
  12. Intuition Pumps by Daniel Dennett
  13. Bulshit Jobs by David Graeber
  14. The Remains of the Day by Kazuo Ishiguro

Keith Smith Healthcare Reflection 

Disclaimer: I have no special knowledge or training about healthcare systems.  In some answers below I try to describe or summarize Keith Smith’s views, but I may misunderstand or unintentionally misrepresent his views.  I don’t necessarily share or endorse his views; just trying to at least understand them a bit more deeply.

Link to EconTalk episode:

https://www.econtalk.org/keith-smith-on-free-market-health-care/

Link to EconTalk Extras page:

https://www.econtalk.org/extra/fifty-percent-off-of-what/

One

Why would insurance companies not want to deal with the Surgery Center?  If the surgery center can openly advertise an authentic price (a price which covers cost, makes profit, pays highly-trained doctors, and is still way below prices in insurance-based systems), then there’s little wiggle room for insurance companies to inflate their listed prices and to keep the difference.  They would still get their cut, but it would be smaller because consumers would actually be able to notice the insurance company price compared to a real price (currently, there is no transparent pricetag for procedures in most hospitals).

 

Two

At the Surgery Center, surgeons are paid a set amount for a given procedure.  They are not paid by the amount of surgical supplies used, or the number of tests they order, or the number of consultations, etc., which might incentivize a physician to schedule more of these things unnecessarily.

The Surgery Center has disintermediated their care in the sense that they’ve excised a middleman: we diagnose and tell the price, you purchase the service.  There isn’t an additional layer of finding a provider who’s “in-network”, mystery about what types of procedures are covered, what actual final costs may be for a given course of treatment, etc.

Relative Value Units are a method of weighing how much a given medical procedure is worth (which can later be converted into a dollar amount), by considering the time, expertise, and expenses involved.  This means that a physician could game this metric by doing high RVU activities, instead of focusing on those that lead more directly to patient outcomes. Presumably, the idea is that RVU and patient outcomes would naturally be aligned or correlated, but it’s hard to design incentives.

If a hospital invents an artificially high price for a procedure, when an insurer (or patient) only pays a small percentage of that price, the hospital can say that they were serving people without means to pay, and can be reimbursed for serving the poor, or they can maintain their status as non-profits.  Due to the metrics that are being tracked, hospitals may be incentivized to make the gap between their “price” and what people pay to be larger.  It can be good for the hospital if their bills are totally unaffordable.

The implication here is that hospitals are freer to invent prices that businesses in other sectors, given the opacity of prices due to lack of information, asymmetric information, and lack of market dynamics).  Another implication is that hospitals’ incentives are not matched with the public’s incentives.

I’m sure there are endless reasons why it’s difficult to open a new hospital (need to bootstrap a reputation, recruit highly trained staff, purchase and maintain tons of complex machinery, have tons of laws and standards to meet, etc), but in this discussion they focus on “Certificate of Need”, which is government approval of the opening of a new facility based on it being needed by the community.  The real kicker is that existing hospitals can exert pressure to say that their potential competitors do not need to exist.  Wikipedia summarizes this problem:

Since new hospitals cannot be constructed without proving a “need”, the certificate-of-need system grants monopoly privileges to already existing hospitals. Consequently, Alaska House of Representatives member Bob Lynn has argued that the true motivation behind certificate-of-need legislation is that “large hospitals are… trying to make money by eliminating competition” under the pretext of using monopoly profits to provide better patient care.

 

Three

Maximizing revenue means doing everything you can to find billable procedures that provide the best ROI.  Maximizing value means providing the best patient outcomes for money spent. Smith points to transparency, customer reviews, the fact that people are willing to travel, and that people will forgo their own insurance coverage to get care at his center as evidence for their maximizing value, and not maximizing revenue.

 

Four

Traditional hospitals may be paid by the supplies that they use (supplies used are taken as a proxy for the services provided, and the value those services represent).  But the Surgery Center pays for all their materials directly, so are incentivised to monitor and use supplies only as necessary.  Of course you could argue that they are tempted to skimp, but the fact that so much is riding on their reputation pushes back on this temptation.

 

Five

First, Smith argues that our current health system isn’t serving the poor.  Currently, the poor are treated as a single demographic, and then an effort is made to provide service to this demographic, but these programs clearly aren’t working.

Second, he argues that market competition will bring down costs while maintaining quality of care, as it does in other sectors.  The current inflated prices (see cost of aspirin/bandaids/etc inside of hospitals versus their prices at a grocery store) are especially hard on the poor. Bringing down costs is important for that reason.

Thirdly, he believes charity is better than government support for medical care of the poor, because charity does not run into the problems of intermediaries and bad incentives discussed above.

 

Reflection on Rory Sutherland’s EconTalk

Note: The podcast EconTalk is the best podcast.  They have interviews, but also a section called “Extras”, to help you further engage with the material presented in the episode.  I decided to write responses to the questions/prompts in order to consider the episode further, and hopefully retain more (I forgot almost everything I read or hear).

Episode link.

Extras link.

 

One

Sutherland feels that economists focus too much on optimizing markets and making them efficient, instead of working creatively and solving edge cases.  They are looking at the median customer, and not recognizing niche markets that entrepreneurs might. Competition forces companies to change diminishing returns in a narrow domain, instead of introducing new products and services which are (relative to competitive domains) low-hanging fruit.

 

Two

Uber is a psychological innovation because it reduces anxiety by providing detailed wait times, whereas buses and trains may have no live schedule, leaving you worried: is the sign correct?  How late is the bus?

Pizza is a successful food because it’s rarely vetoed.  It’s likeable to almost every broad group. So it might not be an individual’s favorite, it’s a highly-rated compromise.  It’s also fast, widely available, and relatively inexpensive, other factors aside from taste that may hold veto power.

 

Three

After a few minutes of reading I still don’t understand what non-ergodic environments are.  I guess it’s something like path-dependent, where events are not all over the place, they depend on preceding events.

But I guess that in path-dependent environments, mistakes compound rapidly.  If you take one wrong turn on Monday, and one wrong turn a week later, you’ll probably find you way, and maybe you’ll be a few minutes late.  If you make four wrong turns in a row on the same trip, you’ll be totally lost, and it may be very costly because you’ll be very late for the event.

Brands allows us to calibrate our expectations and find a product in the acceptable range; better the devil you know than the devil you don’t.

 

Four

I think donuts turn weakness into a strength, from a marketing perspective.  Everyone knows they are highly caloric, and they are celebrated as indulgences and/or outright rejection of dietary advice.  They may also signal fitness: “I can eat this donut and still remain thin” (instagram models with donuts).

I think cheap beer and cheap fast food go for this, as well as “so bad it’s good” cult comedy films like “Snakes on a Plane”.

 

Five

Sutherland feel that companies can focus on a particular metric until they essentially start gaming the metric themselves.  A delivery company could start focusing too much on speed, and ignore how many packages are being damaged in transit.

Middle men have more information than a single, salient metric.  A delivery company could say “we deliver everything in 24 hours” and that’s what the customer considers, while the middleman would recognize that there are other important factors to consider.

Middlemen have expertise than a one-off buyer won’t have.  If I buy one fridge every twenty-five years, I won’t have much to compare to.  But if a middleman is selling thirty models of fridges every week, they may have information worth paying for.

 

Bonus

I apply “dishwasher Darwinism” to washing and drying clothes: if it shrinks or gets destroyed, now I don’t have to worry if it will shrink or get destroyed.

And while I can’t afford to have models serve me champagne during my commute, I can listen to EconTalk…